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Zimbabwe: Open Warfare, Police vs Army on 01 December
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, PREPARE YOURSELVES FOR A STATE OF EMERGENCY TO
BE DECLARED IN ZIMBABWE. THIS IS IMMINENT.
I put up a post a few hours ago explaining what I saw of the fight between
police and army at Fourth Street Terminus in Harare. I had no idea just
what carnage the soldiers had caused until I left the office a little
while back. However, this is not what anyone thinks it is. There is method
to this whole madness. It is minutely planned.
The soldiers have smashed shop fronts along both Jason Moyo and Nelson
Mandela Avenue. On my way home I passed shop after shop with glass shattered
and strewn all over the pavement. As those of you who were on the site
are aware, I witnessed the start of the fight from my office. We are
(un)lucky to have offices overlooking Fourth Street bus terminus, also
known as Roadport, which is where the soldiers have been going daily
since Friday and causing havoc.
I know most of you think this is the beginning of a mutiny in the ranks
of Mugabe's soldiers and at the surface it would appear that way.
First of all, you have to realise that the information I have is coming
from inside sources. Second, you also must realise that these incidents
are directly linked to the bombing of police stations around Harare this
last month (October). The sources who explained what is happening happened
to be speaking to someone they trust deeply in my presence and I can
assure that the information you are about to read was told only to this
person and I. Obviously, you will see this inside information being published
by the usual online journals who are now in the habit if visiting here
and taking my posts to publish as news of their own. But I am not complaining!
This is too important a story and must be shared.
Anyway, here's the thing: This is no mutiny. This
is a planned and calculated action and it is not going to stop any
time soon. At least not until the final planned action, a State of
Emergency. The authorities here in Zim have now made up their minds
that the police are sabotaging the efforts to reign in rampant illegal
dealings. They think that the police force in Zimbabwe is now passively
rebelling against Mugabe, by letting foreign currency dealers and other "criminals" go
about their dealings without arresting them. They also suspect strongly
that it is the police force that is bombing its own stations, as even
the Police Commissioner himself said after the first bomb a few weeks
ago. But this is not the main motivation for what you are seeing here.
It is only part of a larger strategy by Mugabe, designed specifically
to create the conditions necessary for a State of Emergency. The police
are not part of this plan, but the bombs come in handy for this strategy.
It was confirmed to me today, before I heard this inside source speaking,
that soldiers are being paid their money at the barracks. I was at my
bank earlier that day and was discussing the matter of the soldiers with
my manager as general chit-chat when he specifically mentioned that they
have always been taking money to the barracks and paying soldiers out
in situ. The army commanders have told banks that they should turn away
any soldier trying to withdraw cash in town, because tellers are paying
out at barracks, so there is no truth to the rumour that the soldiers
are going on a rampage after failing to withdraw cash.
Instead, four members of the Joint Operations Council,
without the approval or knowledge of the Police Commissioner-General,
Augustine Chihuri, managed to convince Mugabe that the police are now
complicit in the "financial
crimes that are ravaging the country." But this action is not directed
at the police as I will explain just now. The police have simply given
Mugabe an additional arrow to put into his quiver. The bombs themselves
are not a part of this plan and that is why Chihuri is being kept in
the dark. No member of the police force is part of this strategy to bring
about a state of emergency. This is important to note.
Before he left for Doha, Mugabe approved an operation
Final End Times/Magumo Zvamuchese. Its internal acronym in the army
is FEET, which they think is quite funny seeing as they will be making
people flee. This is an operation in which the army have basically
been given authority to usurp the role of the police, whom the JOC
and Mugabe believe have failed, "either
because they are demoralised or because they are simply not up to job."
The operation is not supposed to end until all
places known to be "havens
of forex dealers" are completely cleaned out. To do this effectively,
the authorities believe, it is necessary to have a state of emergency.
That is the ultimate aim. Primarily, this is about the economy, but ZANU
PF hawks also believe that it will have the added bonus of effectively
making the talks redundant. It is an intricate and very crafty strategy,
astonishing for its inventiveness when it is laid bare. And it is working,
because virtually publication in the world has swallowed the bait and
thinks this is the beginning of a rebellion against Mugabe. It is working
as Mugabe planned. So far.
Gideon Gono's concurrent clampdown on "white collar crime"and "indiscipline" is
supposed to, in the words of the originators of this plan, "decapitate
the beast while the army deals with the body". More importantly,
Gono features in this story because, starting Thursday, people will be
allowed to withdraw $100 million in one transaction per week. This is
a lot of money (my bank manager claims not to earn that much per month
from his job). The government believes that when Thursday comes and if
nothing is done about these money-changers, the price of the US dollar
will rise stupendously, fuelling inflation to even higher levels and
frustrating Mugabe's efforts to bring the economy back to some form of
stable footing. Under Section 53 of the Emergency rule laws of Zimbabwe, "violation
of exchange control" or suspicion that one is about violate exchange
control get special attention and would, in the eyes of the government,
help in dealing with the "extraordinary threat" this crime
is posing to economic security.
IT IS IMPORTANT HERE TO EXPLAIN THAT THE PURPOSE
OF ALL THIS IS TWO-PRONGED. ONE ASPECT DEALS WITH HOW TO, IN THE WORDS
OF GONO, "DEAL WITH THE
CASH PROBLEMS ONCE AND FOR ALL" AND THE OTHER IS TO DEAL A FINAL
BLOW TO THE TALKS IN SUCH A WAY THAT THE STATE OF EMERGENCY WILL BE BLESSED
BY SADC. The economic war is not central to this strategy. This is about
how to retain power without the MDC, who have scuttled the talks by walking
away.
The real story, therefore, is not Police vs Army,
but Army vs Money-changers, in order to create conditions the world
will accept as making a state emergency inevitable. It is just that
the police do not know what the army are up to and, "professionally",
they are responding to disturbances in the city centre in the manner
Mugabe taught them - send in the riot squad and disperse the mob, even
if that mob are soldiers. The soldiers in turn resent the police interfering
in what they know to be a legitimate operation and they respond by
trying to chase away riot police, to leave them to do their job. The
soldiers are not aware if the grander plan. They think they are being
asked to deal with money-changers once and for all and are not aware
how their actions will be used later on next week to achieve the main
goal of all this.
The police have been left completely out of this
plan because they simply are not trusted anymore. Ask yourself this:
soldiers have been "running
amok" since Friday last week. Everyday they are on the streets doing
this. If this is a mutiny, why has discipline not been enforced? Why
are military police amongst the soldiers doing these things? Why, if
this is a "mutiny" have soldiers not been confined to barracks?
Why are they being let out, driven to specific points and then safely
going back to barracks without facing any music there from their superiors?
More importantly, ask yourself this: has Mugabe rushed back to Zimbabwe
from Middle East where is currently attending a conference? Why not?
Look, it is difficult for a layman to understand this deeply crafty
strategy, how to connect the police to the army. This strategy, which
has so far managed to fool the world, can be broken down to:
1. The army "rebels", goes on the rampage
2. The State declares a State of Emergency
3. The state of emergency allows the state to (a)
rule without the MDC (b) deal "decisively" with the biggest headache it will face
after this: the economy, through allowing extraordinary measures to be
taken against any "financial terrorist", a phrase you will
start hearing a lot about from next week at the earliest.
If you grasp this, then you understand immediately
why Mugabe is now not afraid of Chitongai tione."
So, in essence then, the soldiers are deliberately being let out to
punish foreign currency dealers, who the government believe are the root
cause of the economic problems we face because they are the ones deliberately
pushing up forex rates to drive Mugabe out of power. Theirs is a specific
mission they have been given and they believe that's all there is to
it. They have not been told of the bigger picture.
Another angle to all this is the "looting" of shops. The shops
being "looted" are not just any shops. If you care to check,
you will see that specific shops owned by two groups of people, are being
targeted:
1. The groups in Zimbabwe who are known to be active
in dealing in forex: (there is a racial connotation to this, which
I will not dignify with an explanation, but all you Zimbabweans know
what I am talking about). These are groups of people known not to go
to banks even when things are "normal" in the country. Gono has publicly warned them
before, I think about two years ago or a year and a half. The government
believes that these are the people who fuel the black market because
they take their daily cash takings and buy US dollars with them. They
are, in the words of one source,"the handmaidens of the money-changers
and foreign interests".
2. Prominent businessmen, very successful, who are known to be supporters
of the opposition (financially). One of them does not live in Zimbabwe
anymore but his business is doing extremely well here. The reasoning
behind targeting this group is simple as explained in my presence: you
are supporting people who are hitting the economic interests of Zimbabwe,
in the hope of bringing Mugabe down, so now we will hit your economic
interests. Right back at ya!
But this is only preparation. It is almost certain now that after this
exercise has been allowed to run its course, our source does not know
the time frame, the current illegitimate government of Zimbabwe will
have created sufficient cause to impose a proper state of emergency,
complete with proper martial law. The government now believes that this
is what is required to restore economic order as well as to allow ZANU
PF to continue in power without SADC raising eyebrows and without the
MDC. Parliament, the MDC's trump card, is now redundant.
What is certain is that the civilian courts will
be suspended and white collar crime, including money-changing and all
the other acts classified as "financial crimes" under the
current sweeping laws will be tried by the military courts. At this
time, I am unable to rule out the imposition of mandatory death sentences
for those found guilty.
Search through the pages of this blog and you will see that almost two
weeks ago, I predicted exactly this while analysing Mugabe's possible
reaction to the breakdown of talks. The whole charade about the soldiers,
which most publication on the Internet and in print are reporting at
face value, is so that Mugabe has a strong case to present to SADC heads
of state on why a State of Emergency was unavoidable. It would be hard
for him to get their support if he simply said it was necessary because
Morgan refused to join him and therefore made running the country through
parliament impossible (because MDC have a majority there).
While the world is looking at the story of soldiers
rebelling, gleefully and hopefully reporting their smashing of shop
fronts and looting, Mugabe, the past-master at survival (a phrase I
have borrowed from the BBC), is actually implementing a strategy that
will catch everyone by surprise. By the time they realise what is happening,
it will be too late (remember the land invasions, dismissed by everyone
before they happened as "He
would be mad to do that!")
Already, this evening, while I was still in the
office, I got an example of just how wrongly the opposition community
is reading this. I got a text message that "soldiers are running amok, chaos everywhere,
there will be a demo by ZCTU and NCA.....please pass on". I have
deliberately left out the date because I do not want to alert the wrong
people before the fact, but I am sure they already know. Anyway, I do
not like to think I contributed to what will happen to them this week
when their demo is quashed. And it will be quashed.
This is because they mistakenly think that the soldiers will join them
and beat back the police. They won't. The soldiers have not rebelled
against Mugabe. Which is why Mugabe has not rushed back home from the
middle east where he is attending a UN conference. He knows exactly what
is happening. And he knows why. And he knows he is safe.
I would dearly love to have a discussion on this
with you all. But I do understand if you are afraid to discuss such
a frightening issue "on
paper". We Zimbabweans have always been like that, so I will understand
if you all decide against commenting and debating this.
This is the strategy, unfolding as I explained a couple of weeks back.
Make your stand, make your preparations with this in mind.